Threat of climate change worse says Lord Stern
Lord Stern said at a London conference last month (reported in the Guardian newspaper, 18 April) that new scientific findings revealed that greenhouse gas emissions were causing more damage than was understood as recently as 2006, when he produced his study for HM Government into the economics of climate change.
In addition to highlighting that emissions were growing much faster than previously predicted, he also emphasised that the speed of climate change “seems to be faster”. He said new findings (e.g. the IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007) vindicated his report.
The 2006 Stern Review has been recognised as playing a major role in shifting the debate about climate change from an environmental focus to identifying the economic impacts. It said the expected increase in extreme weather, with the associated and expensive problems of agricultural failure, water scarcity, disease and mass migration, meant that climate change could consume up to 20% of the world's GDP, with poorest countries worst affected. If this was addressed within 10 – 20 years, the cost of addressing the problem could be limited to about 1% of GDP.
May 2008
Call to take flooding more seriously
Sir Michael Pitt has called for change and direction within society to take flooding and natural hazards more seriously, when he spoke at a conference on Critical National Infrastructure on 16 April 2008. Following the catastrophic flooding last summer, the Government asked Sir Michael Pitt to identify lessons to be learned from the emergency and make
recommendations that would help the country deal with flooding in the future. In December, the review published an interim report with a number of hard hitting recommendations. The review is due to conclude in the next few months, when Sir Michael Pitt will present all of his recommendations in a final report.
In a keynote speech to the audience of the RUSI (Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies) Critical National infrastructure Conference, Sir Michael Pitt said: "Last summer's flooding was dramatic and unprecedented. Thousands of homes and businesses were flooded and around seven thousand people were rescued from the flood waters by the emergency services. Events of this kind are
likely to become more frequent as the climate changes. That is why we must adapt to increasing risks from flooding - more effectively and more quickly. Direction must come from Government and a new approach is needed for planning and making people aware of the risk of flooding."
April 2008
Department of Health: Climate Change Guidance Documents
The UK is currently leading the way in considering the health effects of climate change. A new guidance document has been produced for the Department of Health asking health professionals to consider the health impacts of climate change. The document comes after the ‘Health Impacts of
Climate Change’ document released two months ago giving advice on how societies can adapt to the most severe impacts, such as heat waves and flooding, and considers how the future effects of climate change can be minimised by reducing energy use. The Department of Health are already taking
action by working with other departments on the development of the government’s Adaptation Policy Framework to be published later this year.
The guidance can be downloaded by clicking on this external link: www.dh.gov.uk.
April 2008
National Security Strategy and Climate Change
The Prime Minister announced the publication of the first National Security Strategy for the UK, 'Security in an interdependent world', on 19 March 2008. The challenges posed by climate change to global stability and security, and therefore to national security is recognised by the new strategy.
The strategy states that
"Tackling its [climate change] causes, mitigating its risks and preparing for and dealing with its consequences are critical to our future security, as well as protecting global prosperity and avoiding humanitarian
disaster. The impact of climate change is already being felt, in higher global temperatures and changed weather patterns. Climate impact models will increasingly help us understand the likely path of further change over coming decades, at regional and national level."
"Rising sea levels and disappearing ice will alter borders and open up new sea lanes, increasing the risk of territorial disputes. An increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events – floods, droughts, storms – will generate more frequent and
intense humanitarian crises, adding further stresses on local, national and international structures. Rising temperatures together with extreme weather will increase pressures on water supplies."
"Many of those changes will affect the United Kingdom directly, but the direct effects are likely to fall most heavily on those countries least able to deal with them, and therefore most likely both to suffer humanitarian disaster but also to tip into instability, state failure, or conflict. That further increases the responsibility
of the international system to generate collective solutions."
The strategy also warns of the impact of climate change on food security adding “to the pressure on food supplies, through decreased rainfall in many areas, and climate related crop failures."
The strategy can be found on the Cabinet Office website, click here: Cabinet Office – National Security Strategy.
March 2008
Agriculture and Climate Change
Farming Futures is a user friendly website for those interested in how climate change will affect the agriculture sector. The website includes a 'Facts Sheet' section, with information on how farmers can mitigate and adapt to climate change, information on the opportunities and challenges of climate change and files on livestock, crops and horticulture. Features also include case studies with farmers, events
and a useful links page. Visit: www.farmingfutures.org.uk. This link can also be found on the SWCCIP links page.
March 2008
World’s glaciers are melting away faster
The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) announced this month that the world's glaciers are continuing to melt away at a record rate. Data from close to 30 reference glaciers in nine mountain ranges indicate that between the years 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 the average rate of melting and thinning more than doubled. The findings come from the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS), a centre based at the University of Zurich in Switzerland and that is supported by UNEP.
WGMS has been tracking the fate of glaciers for over a century. Continuous data series of annual mass balance, expressed as thickness change, are available for 30 reference glaciers since 1980. The Service calculates thickening and thinning of glaciers in terms of 'water equivalent'. The estimates for the year 2006 indicate that further shrinking took place equal to around 1.4 metres of water equivalent compared to losses of half a metre in 2005.
"This continues the trend in accelerated ice loss during the past two and a half decades and brings the total loss since 1980 to more than 10.5 metres of water equivalent," said Professor Dr. Wilfried Haeberli, WGMS’s Director. During 1980-1999, average loss rates had been 0.3 metres per year. Since the turn of the millennium, this rate had increased to about half a metre per year.
The record loss during these two decades – 0.7 metres in 1998 – has now been exceeded by three out of the past six years: 2003, 2004 and 2006. On average, one metre water equivalent corresponds to 1.1 metres in ice thickness indicating a further shrinking in 2006 of 1.5 actual metres and since 1980 a total reduction in thickness of ice of just over 11.5 metres or almost 38 feet.
The potential impacts of climate change on glaciers was outlined in the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UNEP and the World Meteorological Organisation) published in 2007.
March 2008
£4m to Help Local Authorities Fight Climate Change
A new £4 million programme to help local authorities tackle climate change was announced by Environment Minister Phil Woolas and Local Government Minister John Healey on 11 March. The programme will spread existing best practice on climate change among local authorities, and provide training and mentoring to help them reduce emissions and adapt to the already unavoidable effects of climate change. The programme, jointly funded by Defra and Communities and Local Government, will be tailored to local needs and
priorities, with delivery being co-ordinated at a regional level. It is targeted particularly at those local authorities who identify climate change as a priority in their Local Area Agreements. For more information, visit: www.defra.gov.uk/news/2008/080311b.htm.
March 2008
Retrofitting Existing Housing
The Three Regions Climate Change Group launched its forth report - Your Home in a Changing Climate: Retrofitting Existing Homes for Climate Change Impacts: Report for Policy Makers - last February at London's City Hall. The report makes the case for adapting existing homes in London, the South East and East of England to ensure they are liveable and resilient in a changing climate. By 2050, 70% of housing will be housing that exists today, so while standards for
new build are important, we also need to adapt existing homes for the changing climate. The report uses three case studies to show practical and affordable measures to achieve substantial adaptation. Copies of the report are available on the new web site www.london.gov.uk/trccg. Additionally SWCCIP has some hard copies of the final report. Please contact Emily O'Connor to request a copy: emily.o'connor@environment-agency.gov.uk.
March 2008
Met Office advice on climate change, La Niña and global variability
According to the Met Office, the significant drop in global average temperature in January 2008 can be explained by the large variability in our climate year-on-year, but with an underlying rise over the longer term almost certainly caused by man-made emissions of greenhouse gases. There are a number of natural factors contributing to so-called interannual variability, the single most important being the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO. The global climate is currently being influenced by the cold phase of this
oscillation, known as La Niña.
The current La Niña began to develop in early 2007, having a significant cooling effect on the global average temperature. Despite this, 2007 was one of the ten warmest years since global records began in 1850 with a temperature some 0.4°C above average. The La Niña has strengthened further during early 2008 and is now the strongest since 1988/89, significantly contributing to a lower January temperature in 2008 compared to recent years. In addition, global average temperature has been influenced by very cold land temperatures in parts of the northern hemisphere and extensive snow cover.
The Met office advises that once La Niña declines, it is very likely that renewed warming will occur as was the case when the Earth emerged from the strong La Niña events of 1989 and 1999.
January 2008 may seem particularly cold compared to January 2007 — the warmest January on record and largely due to the warming phenomenon El Niño — but this merely demonstrates the year-to-year natural variations in our climate. In future, while the trend in global temperatures is predicted to remain upwards, the Met Office anticipates inherent variability of this kind.
March 2008
Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK
The possible health effects of climate change have been set out in a report published by the Health Protection Agency and the Department of Health on 12 February 2008. The report, written by an Expert Panel, takes into account the latest information and current predictions about climate change in the UK . It will form the basis of the Agency's
response to a recent request for information from the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, to help scope their new study on ‘Adapting the UK to Climate Change'.
The findings show the UK is adapting well to rising temperatures experienced since the 1970s, but heatwaves pose an increasing risk to health and there is an increased risk of flooding. There is even a very slight chance that malaria could return to the South of England during the next 50-100 years, although outbreaks of this disease are likely to be rare and involve a small number of people.
In order to aid decision making on priorities by the UK Government, the report has looked at the health consequences if no action is taken to avoid significant climate change this century. If that were to be the case, the following consequences are possible:
• By 2012 there will be a 1 in 40 chance that the South East of England will experience a serious heatwave causing 3,000 immediate heat-related deaths.
• While malaria outbreaks in Britain are likely to remain rare and easily controlled, health authorities need to remain alert to the possibility of larger outbreaks in continental Europe and the emergence of more deadly European strains of mosquitoes in wetland areas of Britain.
• Tick-borne diseases such as Lyme disease are likely to become more common due to changes in land management and an increase in outside leisure time.
• Increased exposure to sunlight will lead to a rise in skin cancers.
• The number of people at a high risk from flooding is set to rise from 1.5 million to 3.5 million by 2100.
• There will be up to 14,000 (14.5 per cent) more cases of food poisoning, including Salmonella, per year.
• Winter deaths will continue to decline as the climate warms.
The report can be downloaded from the Department of Health website: DH link.
February 2008
Podcast launched by I Count
I Count, the campaign of the Stop Climate Chaos coalition, have launched the first of a series of pod casts which both inform and entertain hosted on www.icount.org.uk/podcast
Developed in a radio magazine format and drawing on the 60 plus membership of the coalition, the pod cast features the latest activity, news and events in the world of climate change as well as humorous input and interviews from scientists to celebrities. Eco-gadgets are also put to the test and there is a discussion panel featuring Ashok Sinha, director of I Count, Lucy Pearce, I Count's Campaigns Manager
and James Lloyd, Head of Campaigns for People & Planet reflecting on the highs of 2007 and the big issues for 2008. The pilot also includes I Count’s ‘Green Gas’ section – a quick fire light hearted Q&A with high profile people passionate about the environment kicking off with No:1 selling artist Just Jack.
February 2008
Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership 07-08 Annual Report Card
The MCCIP recently launched an annual report card to summarize the state of current knowledge on the impacts of climate change on the marine environment. The report brings together expert knowledge from 60 leading scientists over 29 institutes. At the recent launch event, three Ministers from Scotland and the UK were extremely positive
about the card and John Croxall from the RSPB emphasised that this product was of value to a wide range of users. The launch also led to a high level of media interest (BBC television, BBC radio and regional, national and international newspapers). View the online report card at www.mccip.org.uk/briefingsARC.html. MCCIP also welcome your views on the card at their online
questionnaire: MCCIP survey.
February 2008
Future Water
The water strategy for England, 'Future Water', was published by Defra on 7 February 2008. The strategy recognises that because of our need to adapt to climate change, our water intensive lifestyle and other pressures such as changing land use, we need to find ways of using water much
more efficiently and sustainably if we are to continue to enjoy high standards and constant supply.
'Future Water' paints a Vision for 2030:-
• Consumers using water wisely, appreciating its value and the consequences of wasting it;
• A sustainable supply-demand balance across England, with no seriously water stressed areas;
• Reduced per capita consumption of water through cost effective measures, to an average of 130 litres per person per day by 2030, or possibly even 120 litres per person per day depending on new technological developments and innovation;
• Water companies actively encouraging demand management to protect customer and environmental needs;
• Low levels of leakage, with targets set and met at the optimum balance of economic, environmental and other costs;
• Water efficiency playing a prominent role in achieving a sustainable supply demand balance, with high standards of water efficiency in new homes, and water-efficient products and technologies in existing buildings;
• Pro-active industrial and commercial sectors leading by example, through initiatives such as voluntary agreements.
'Future Water' can be found on the Defra website by clicking here: Future Water.
Defra also launched (on 7 February) a consultation on improving surface water drainage. The floods last summer (2007) brought into sharp focus the real damage that surface water flooding can cause. The interim report from the Pitt Review on lessons learned has urged early action to improve the way that surface water is
managed, particularly in high risk areas. In line with Sir Michael Pitt’s initial conclusions, this consultation considers policy measures to improve the way that surface water runoff is managed. The consultation can be found on the Defra website by clicking here: Improving surface water drainage.
February 2008
Climate change having major impact on our coast
The Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) reported on 16 January 2008 that seas are becoming more violent, causing increased coastal erosion and greater risk of flooding. Coastal erosion is occurring along 17% of the UK
coastline (30% of England’s coastline; 23% of Wales; 20% of Northern Ireland; 12% Scotland). The report states that an observed increasing trend in extreme high water levels is most likely to be caused by the rise in average sea level which brings an increased risk of flooding. MCCIP expects rising sea levels and an increase in storm intensity to spread the extent of erosion in future.
Higher atmospheric CO2 levels are also making oceans warmer and more acidic, affecting plankton, fish and birds. Warmer waters are also changing the distribution of plankton that support many marine food chains. Wildlife is threatened by these changes and over-fishing exacerbates the problem.
MCCIP was launched in March 2005 and is a partnership between scientists, Government, its agencies, and NGOs. The principal aim is to develop a long term approach to understanding and communicating the implications of climate change in our seas. The MCCIP website is at www.mccip.org.uk. Detailed briefings for this new report are at www.mccip.org.uk/arc.
January 2008
The costs of climate change
A new European Environment Agency (EEA) report on the future economic costs of climate change was released on 19 Dec 07. The report looks at the dangers of inaction at a European level, concluding that the role of adaptation in reducing these economic costs is significant. Based on existing information, the report considers natural ecosystems, coastal zones, agriculture, energy, tourism, human health, water availability and the built environment. With more
adverse effects in the Mediterranean and south-eastern Europe, the report urges countries to exchange information and share experience with each other as only a handful are actually progressing on an economic perspective. To download the full report visit: http://reports.eea.europa.eu The EEA article can be found on: www.eea.europa.eu.
January 2008
2007 was the UK's second warmest year
2007 was the second warmest on record in the UK, according to figures released by the Met Office on 3 January 2008. The average mean temperature across the UK was 9.6°C - slightly cooler than in 2006, but continuing the recent trend towards warmer temperatures. Since UK-wide records began in 1914, 9 of the 10 warmest years have happened since 1989. The UK's top 10 warmest years on record (in order) are 2006, 2007, 2003, 2004, 2002, 2005, 1990, 1997, 1949 and 1999.
Despite the wet summer leading to severe flooding, 2007 was also characterised by relatively warm conditions at night, bringing fewer frosts - 18 days fewer than normal for the UK overall, and warmer sea temperatures. "To the public it seemed like a very dull and cool year because we didn't get a heatwave," said Met office climate scientist Dr Matt Huddleston. "But the warm night temperatures and the lack of frosts mean on average it was a very warm year."
The Met Office forecast global temperature for 2008 to be 0.37°C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0°C, the coolest year since 2000, when the value was 0.24°C. Prof. Chris Folland from the Met Office Hadley Centre said: "Phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña have a significant influence on global surface temperature and the current strong La Niña will act to limit temperatures in 2008. However, mean temperature is still expected to be significantly warmer than in 2000, when
a similar strength La Niña pegged temperatures to 0.24°C above the 1961-90 average. Sharply renewed warming is likely once La Niña declines."
January 2008
Climate change and sustainability: new local performance framework
DCLG and Defra have published (in December 2007) a supporting note "Climate change and sustainability: The crucial role of the new local perfomance framework" to help local authorities make the most of the new local performance framework*. It signposts to key guidance and other documents that have been published recently. The document makes the point that local communities are
increasingly concerned about the impact of climate change and the need to adopt a sustainable approach to the use of our precious natural resources. If local communities acting in partnership accept the challenge, they can begin to have a real impact in mitigating climate change and in adapting to its effects. All the priorities identified in the Local Area Agreement (LAA) can make a contribution to tackling climate change and protecting the environment.
Click here to download the document (pdf) from the DCLG website: climate change and sustainability (pdf on external site).
*Note: For information on the new local performance framework, click here: performance framework (external site). New Local Area Agreements (LAAs) form the heart of the new local performance framework. SWCCIP can advise local authorities in the South West on the inclusion of climate change adaptation plans in their LAAs.
January 2008
Defra accepts urgent recommendations from Pitt interim review report on summer floods
Sir Michael Pitt, Chairman of the South West Strategic Health Authority, was asked by Ministers to conduct an independent review of the flooding emergency that took place in June and July 2007. His interim report was published on 17 December 2007. Secretary of State for the Environment Hilary Benn welcoming the
report said "The Government agrees with all of the urgent recommendations and will work with all organisations involved in taking them forward as quickly as possible."
The interim report contains 15 urgent recommendations which Sir Michael believes should be implemented in order to minimise the impact of any flooding in the near future. It also
sets out the direction for the remainder of the Review and acts as a consultation document prior to publication of the final document in the summer of 2008. Additionally, the Review draws 72 interim conclusions, awaiting further information and evidence before being put forward in firm recommendations next summer (2008).
The 15 “urgent recommendations” of the interim report are:
• 1. More frequent and systematic monitoring of groundwater levels at times of high risk should be undertaken by the Environment Agency, which should begin as soon as possible to predict and mitigate further serious ground water flooding from this winter onwards.
• 2. The Environment Agency, supported by local authorities and water companies, should urgently identify areas at highest risk from surface water flooding where known, inform Local Resilience Forums and take steps to identify remaining high risk areas over the coming months.
• 3. The Environment Agency should urgently develop and implement a clear policy on the use of temporary and demountable defences.
• 4. All Local Resilience Forums should urgently review their current local arrangements for water rescue to consider whether they are adequate in light of the summer’s events and their local community risk registers.
• 5. All Local Resilience Forums should undertake an urgent review of designated rest centres and other major facilities to ensure either that they have the necessary levels of resilience to enable them to be used in the response to flooding and other major emergencies, or that alternative arrangements are put in place.
• 6. The Cabinet Office, with other departments, should urgently consider the costs, benefits and feasibility of establishing arrangements for the urgent acquisition of supplies during a major emergency, including the use of call-off contracts or the creation of national or regional stockpiles of equipment and consumables.
• 7. Department of Health guidance clarifying the role and accountabilities of organisations involved in providing scientific and technical advice during a major incident should be implemented as soon as possible and understood by Gold Commanders.
• 8. Guidance currently under preparation by Cabinet Office to provide local responders with advice on the definition and identification of vulnerable people and on planning to support them in an emergency should be issued urgently.
• 9. In order to effectively fulfil its Lead Department role for flood risk management and emergency response, Defra needs to urgently develop and share a national flood emergency framework.
• 10. Category 1 responders should be urgently provided with a detailed assessment of critical infrastructure in their areas to enable them to assess its vulnerability to flooding.
• 11. The Environment Agency should work urgently with telecommunications companies, consulting the Information Commissioner as necessary to facilitate the roll-out of ‘opt-out’ telephone flood warning schemes to all homes and businesses liable to flooding, including homes with ex-directory numbers.
• 12. Local Resilience Forums urgently develop plans to enhance flood warnings through ‘door-knocking’ by local authorities based on an assessment of the post code areas likely to flood.
• 13. Local Resilience Forums urgently make arrangements to involve local media representatives in the local preparedness and response to support their public information role.
• 14. Members of the public make up a flood kit – including key personal documents, insurance policy, emergency contact numbers (including local council, emergency services and Floodline – 0845 988 1188), torch, battery or wind-up radio, mobile phone, rubber gloves, wet wipes or antibacterial hand gel, first aid kit and blankets.
• 15. Members of the public increase their personal state of readiness and resilience to floods by following the Environment Agency’s practical advice.
The Review report can be found on the Cabinet Office website by clicking here: www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/thepittreview.
December 2007
UKCIP08, The climate of the United Kingdom and recent trends
This £2 million Defra funded project consists of five reports and an interactive website, known as UKCIP08. The project brings together climate science from the Met Office to provide information to decision makers, academics and others, on the current climate, and possible future changes. Its interactive website will provide customisable climate change projections when it is launched in late 2008.
The first report, ‘The climate of the United Kingdom and recent trends’, published on 7 December 2007, contains information about key climate variables from 1961 to 2006. It provides maps and graphs to show long term averages and changes between 1961 and 2006 with information presented annually and by season. Most of the data is from the Met Office, with additional material from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory and
IPCC. It allows people to explore projections of climate change through the 21st century. It states:
• Central England Temperature has risen by about a degree Celsius since the 1970s, with 2006 being the warmest yet. It is likely that there has been a significant influence from human activity on the recent warming.
• Sea surface temperatures around the UK coast have risen over the past three decades, by about 0.7°C.
• Severe windstorms around the UK have become more frequent in the past few decades, but no higher than levels seen at the beginning of the last century.
The final outputs, including an interactive website, will be released in late 2008, and will provide the most comprehensive package of climate change information available for the UK to date. A pdf of ‘The climate of the United Kingdom and observed trends’ is available from the UK Climate Impacts Programme at www.ukcip.org.uk. The data underlying the report can be accessed on the Met office website by
clicking here: Met Office - Hadley Centre.
December 2007
Summer Floods: Environment Agency Review Report published
The EA has completed their 2007 summer floods review to identify lessons they can learn and good practice they can implement. The report was published on 6 December 2007 to feed into the Government’s review lead by Sir Michael Pitt. In his foreword to the report, the EA's Chairman Sir John Harman said "We need the help of Government to make strategic changes in how flood risk is
managed, and a long term strategy for investment in the context of a changing climate. We need a clear co-ordinating framework to deal with flood risk from surface water drains and sewers, which were the source of flooding for two-thirds of homes this summer. The providers of critical public services, including electricity and water companies, need to take their role in protecting their services from the consequences of flooding seriously."
The report highlights three areas of policy where action is needed by Government:
• Strategic overview of inland flooding - the Environment Agency should be given a clear overview role for urban flooding from all sources which would provide the framework for local authorities and other partners to plan locally and work together to manage urban flood risk.
• Critical infrastructure - measures should be put in place to ensure that key utilities and public services take responsibility for climate change proofing critical infrastructure, facilities and services
• Flood risk management investment - future flood risk management investment needs to increase so that we can adapt to our changing climate.
The report also recommends three key areas for the EA and its partners to re-examine and act on:
• Flood warning.
• Flood event information and advice.
• Incident response.
Click here for a link to the report on the EA website: 2007 summer floods review. The EA has a dedicated web page on the 2007 summer floods. It contains facts and information on the floods and can be found at: www.environment-agency.gov.uk/2007summerfloods.
December 2007
Summer Floods: ABI calls on the Government to develop a 25-year strategy to manage Britain’s growing flood risk
The Association of British Insurers recommendation comes in the ABI’s report, "Summer Floods 2007: Learning the Lessons" published on 4 December 2007. The ABI wants to see a 25-year national flood strategy, based on:
• An investment programme that reflects climate change and the real flood risks from rivers, coasts and drainage.
• Improved national leadership and coordination with national targets for reducing flood risk. A single national body should be responsible for flood management strategy to replace the current piecemeal approach.
• Stronger planning controls to ensure that new developments are not built in high flood-risk areas wherever possible.
Stephen Haddrill, Director General of the ABI, said: "This summer’s devastating floods highlight the urgent need for a long-term strategy based around more investment, national coordination and better land use planning. Insurers want to continue to provide flood insurance. The right decisions from the Government will ensure that flood insurance remains widely available and affordable in the UK.”
ABI member companies have dealt with around 165,000 claims arising from the summer floods, and will pay out approximately £3 billion.
The ABI put forward a number of other proposals in their report:
• the Climate Change Bill currently before Parliament should introduce a statutory objective for the Environment Agency to reduce flood risk and give it greater co-ordinating powers;
• the Environment Agency should publish maps and flood risk assessments showing the relatives risks of flooding from all sources across the country, together with forecast maps showing risks levels in decades to come;
• planning policy and Building Regulations must be updated to take full account of the need to reduce levels of risk of flooding.
Click here for a link to the ABI website: www.abi.org.uk
December 2007
IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was published in Valencia, Spain on 17 November 2007. This report, the Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the IPCC. It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report.
The report has involved over 2,500 scientific expert reviewers, computer modelling, 800 contributing authors, and 450 lead authors from over 130 countries. The IPCC states that climate change is "unequivocal" and may bring "abrupt and irreversible" impacts. The panel's chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, highlighted the need to deal with impacts which are coming whether or not global emissions are curbed. Even if levels of CO2 in the atmosphere stayed where they were now, he said, research showed sea levels would rise by between 0.4 and 1.4 metres simply because sea water would continue warming up, which makes it expand leading to major changes to coastlines and inundating low-lying areas including river deltas and low-lying islands.
United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in launching the summary report challenged governments to act on the report’s findings. He said slowing or even reversing the existing trends of global warming was the defining challenge of our age and galvanising international action on global warming was one of his main priorities as Secretary General.
The IPCC projections for this century were:
• Probable temperature rise between 1.8°C and 4°C but possible temperature rise between 1.1°C and 6.4°C;
• Sea level most likely to rise by 28-43cm (global average sea level rise has risen from 1.8mm/yr to 3.1mm/yr from 1961 to 1993);
• Arctic summer sea ice could disappear in second half of century;
• Partial loss of ice sheets on ice polar land could imply:
– metres of sea level rise
– major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas
– great effects in river deltas and low-lying islands
• Approximately 20-30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction
• Large scale and persistent changes in Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) will have impacts on marine ecosystem productively, fisheries, ocean CO2 uptake and terrestrial vegetation;
• Increase in heat waves very likely; and
• Increase in tropical storm intensity likely.
The summary concluded that approximately 20-30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5°C (relative to the 1980-1999 average).
The Working Group first report, on the science of climate change, was released in February 2007 and concluded it was at least 90% likely that human activities were responsible for the warming observed since 1950. The second report, on
impacts, adaptation and vulnerability released in April 2007 warned that billions of people face shortages of food and water and increased risk of flooding; we must anticipate and plan for the changes ahead. The third report released in May 2007 stated that many scientists believed that if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere can be kept below about 450ppm CO2-equivalent the average global temperature rise could be kept below 2°C, and major impacts avoided. IPCC concludes that stabilisation at between 445ppm and 535ppm would cost less than 3% of global GDP.
The findings will inform the Bali talks on the UN climate convention and the Kyoto Protocol which open on 3 December 2007.
The report(s) can be found on the IPCC website at: www.ipcc.ch.
November 2007
Climate Change Bill published
The Climate Change Bill, the first of its kind in the world, was published on 15 November 2007 and sets out a framework that will put Britain on the path to become a low-carbon economy, with clear, legally binding targets to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by at least 60% by 2050, and 26% to 32% by 2020, against 1990 levels.
Key points in the Climate Change Bill include:
• Legally-binding targets to cut CO2 emissions by at least 60% by 2050 and 26 to 32% by 2020.
• A new system of legally binding five year "carbon budgets", set at least 15 years ahead, to provide clarity on the UK's optimum pathway towards its key targets and increase the confidence and certainty for business planning and investment in technology needed to move towards a low-carbon economy.
• A new statutory body, the Committee on Climate Change, to provide independent expert advice and guidance to Government on achieving its targets and staying within its carbon budgets.
• A new system of annual open and transparent reporting to Parliament. The Committee on Climate Change will provide an independent progress report to which the Government must respond. This will ensure the Government is held to account every year on its progress towards each five year carbon budget and the 2020 and 2050 targets.
• A requirement for Government to report at least every five years on current and predicted impacts of climate change and on its proposals and policy for adapting to climate change.
• Enabling powers to introduce new trading schemes through secondary legislation, similar to the Carbon Reduction Commitment, a new cap and trade scheme for large organisations such as local authorities, supermarkets and other large retailers, and government departments. The Carbon Reduction Commitment will be introduced through the Bill.
For link to the Defra web page concerning the Climate Change Bill click here: Climate Change Bill 2007.
Note. Defra announced on 29 October 2007 a specific reference in the climate change bill to strengthening the country’s preparedness for climate change by requiring the Government regularly to assess the risks of climate change to the UK, and to report to Parliament on its proposals and policies for sustainable adaptation to climate change.
November 2007
Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution Adaptation Study - Invitation for Your Responses
The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution have chosen 'Adapting the UK to Climate Change' as the topic for its next major study. The Chair of the Royal Commission, Sir John Lawton, says “The Royal Commission has chosen this topic because it believes there is an urgent need to understand how the UK should adapt to climate change”. The study will cover themes such as
biodiversity, land use, transport, health and wellbeing, water management and energy. The scoping phase of the study will determine what issues are included. The main phase of the study will take place in 2008 and is expected to report in 2009.
To find out more, and send your views on the issues you think this study should focus on, contact: Jon Freeman Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, 5-8 The Sanctuary, Westminster, London, SW1P 3JS (tel. 020 7799 8980, email jon.freeman@rcep.org.uk) by 25 January 2008. Click here for full article: RECP (external site).
November 2007
7 November 2007 (Strand Palace, London) Planning for Climate Change conference
The Royal Town Planning Institute (RTPI) are holding a one-day conference, designed for planners and environmental bodies, to focus on planning for the impacts of climate change. Government representatives speaking on their climate change policies will include Peter Ellis, Head of Climate Change, Communities and Local Government and Rynd Smith, Head of Policy and Practice. This conference, sponsored by ENTEC, will give an in-depth exploration of the current
issues surrounding adapting to the impacts of climate change. The cost is: £449 + VAT or £349 + VAT for RTPI members. Further information including the agenda and booking can be found by clicking here: RTPI (external site).
October 2007
The rainfall from May to July 2007 broke all records
Yes, it's official; England and Wales has experienced the wettest three summer months since precipitation records began in 1766. According to the Met Office, many areas saw over 200% more than their average May-July rainfall. Research from the Met Office and Environment Canada has shown, for the first time, a link between human activity and changes in global rainfall patterns. The study, published in Nature, shows a steady increase in levels of rainfall across the UK by an average of 6.2mm every decade. The scientists conclude that at least half, and possibly up to 85%, is caused by the impact of greenhouse gas emissions.
September 2007
The 2014 climate forecast is...
Climate scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre unveiled the first decadal climate prediction model in a paper published on 10 August 2007 in the journal Science. The paper includes the Met Office's prediction for annual global temperature to 2014. Over the 10-year period as a whole, climate continues to warm and 2014 is likely to be 0.3 deg C warmer than 2004. At least half of the years after 2009 are predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record. These predictions are very relevant to businesses and policy-makers who will be able to respond to short-term climate change when making decisions today. The next decade is within many people's
understanding and brings home the reality of a changing climate. 1998 is still the current warmest year on record with a global mean temperature of 14.54 deg C.
August 2007
Flooding Lessons Learned Review
Environment Secretary Hilary Benn announced on 8 August 2007 that Sir Michael Pitt, Chair of the South West Strategic Health Authority, will lead the review into the recent floods. The Lessons Learned Review, to be carried out by the Cabinet Office with support from the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs and the Department for
Communities and Local Government, will examine both how to reduce the risk and impact of floods, and the emergency response to the floods in June and July. It will seek views from those involved in the floods, including affected residents, the emergency services, business and professional associations.
The terms of reference for the review are:
a) Flood risk management, including the risk posed by surface water flooding and the way in which public and private sector might adapt to future risks.
b) Vulnerability of critical infrastructure, including:
(i) The ability of critical infrastructure to withstand flooding, and what improvements might be made.
(ii) The resilience of dams and associated structures and what improvements might be made.
c) The emergency response to the flooding, including social and welfare issues.
d) Issues for wider emergency planning arising from the actual or potential loss of essential infrastructure.
e) Issues arising during the transition period from the response to recovery phases.
August 2007
Hurricanes have doubled over the last century
A study published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society in London, looks at the frequency of these storms from 1900 to the present and it says about twice as many hurricanes form each year now compared to 100 years ago. The report's authors state that man-made climate change, which has led to an increased temperature of the sea surface and changes in wind patterns, is the main factor behind the increase in the number of hurricanes. Further details can be found on the BBC website - click
here BBC news website.
July 2007
Tipping Point Or Turning Point? Social Marketing & Climate Change
A publication by the Ipsos Mori Social Research Institute giving recent figures on what the public really think about climate change, with statistics and diagrams. To read the publication, click here: IPSOS-MORI.
July 2007
Europe must take adaptation measures to lessen impacts of current and future warming
The green paper on adapting to climate change in Europe was launched at the end of June 2007. sets out options for EU action to help the process of adaptation to climate change across Europe. Adaptation means taking action to cope with changing climatic conditions, for example by using
scarce water resources more efficiently or ensuring the frail and elderly are properly cared for during heatwaves. The Green Paper aims to stimulate a broad public debate on adaptation in Europe, starting with a major stakeholder conference hosted by the Commission on 3 July 07 in Brussels. Click here for further details: Europa Press Release.
July 2007
Live Earth 7.7.07 - raising worldwide global awareness of climate change
Live Earth was a 24-hour, 7-continent concert series on 7 July 2007 that brought together more than 100 music artists and an estimated 2 billion people to trigger a global movement to solve the climate crisis. Live Earth reached this worldwide audience through TV, radio and the internet. It marked the beginning of a major 3-year campaign led by the Alliance for Climate Protection (www.climateprotect.org),
The Climate Group and other international organisations to drive individuals, corporations and governments to take action to solve global warming. Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore is the Chair of the Alliance and Partner of Live Earth. The UK venue was Wembley Stadium and featured major artists including Madonna, Genesis, Duran Duran, Red Hot Chilli Peppers, and many more.
The official Live Earth website is at www.liveearth.org. The BBC's Live Earth website is at www.bbc.co.uk/liveearth.
An official UK partner of Live Earth is "I Count", the campaign of the Stop Climate Chaos coalition, with a supporting role for the delivery of Live Earth’s ‘calls to action’ in the UK. (July 2007)
July 2007
North American cities prepare for climate change
The Clean Air Partnership, based in Toronto, has published a report on how six cities (New York, Boston region, Halifax, Vancouver, Seattle and King County and London) are adapting to climate change. You can view the report at: www.cleanairpartnership.org/pdf/cities_climate_change.pdf (pdf on external site).
June 2007
A surfer's perspective on climate change
Surfers against Sewage (SAS) has produced a report (June 2007) funded by The Crown Estate on the potential impact of climate change on surfers in the UK. Click here for link to document Climate change: A surfer's perspective (pdf on external site).
June 2007
Third sector critical force against climate change
Voluntary and other non-profit organisations (otherwise known as the third sector) can mobilise millions of people in the fight against climate change to help create and safeguard a better future, Environment Secretary David Miliband and Minister for the Third Sector Ed Miliband said on 18 June '07 as they launched a declaration on
climate change for third sector organisations. Thousands of voluntary organisations are expected to sign up to the public commitment to a sustained, comprehensive response to the challenge of climate change.
Voluntary organisations are asked to commit to face this challenge by:
• Recognising the need for urgent action at all levels to combat climate change;
• Adopting public plans to reduce carbon emissions;
• Enabling members, service users and clients to meet this challenge and reduce their own carbon emissions;
• Supporting national legal targets for green house gas emissions;
• Working in partnership with government and others to reach or exceed these targets; and
• Working together as a sector to inspire and encourage action on this issue.
Further details can be found at www.everyactioncounts.org.uk/declaration or by calling 0845 241 0957.
June 2007
